St. Louis Election Results + Analysis

for Turnout, Trump Support, Prop 1, D, and R

(click on heading for full spreadsheet)

Turnout overall:

Turnout was down pretty much across the board, with 65.05% turnout in total.

• For reference, neighbor St. Louis County had 79.28%.

Fourteen wards were below the 65.05% threshold, and only two wards passed the 79.28% turnout of the county.

• Two of the Twenty-Eight wards had between 40% and 49.9%

3 (47.67%), 22 (48.79%)

• Eleven of the Twenty-Eight wards had between 50% and 59.9%

1 (52.77%), 2 (54.60%), 4 (50.47%), 5 (53.30%), 11 (59.75%), 18 (57.05%), 19 (59.19%), 20 (53.88%), 21 (54.41%), 25 (57.08%), 27 (52.34%)

• Five of the Twenty-Eight wards had between 60% and 69.9%

6 (69.28%), 9 (65.13%), 14 (68.84%), 17 (65.00%), 26 (61.32%)

• Eight of the Twenty-Eight wards had between 70 and 79.9%

7 (70.62%), 8 (76.11%), 10 (74.72%), 12 (75.10%), 13 (71.06%), 15 (71.82%), 24 (76.11%), 28 (72.32%)

• Two of the Twenty-Eight wards had above 80%

16 (81.44%), 23 (80.28%)

Highest: ward 16 with 81.44%,

Lowest: ward 3 47.67%.

Turnout Compared to 2016:

Total turnout was 65.05%, down from 2016’s turnout of 69.43% (-4.38%).

• Down even farther compared to 2012’s turnout of 74.04% (-8.99%).

Declined in Twenty-Four of the Twenty-Eight wards, compared to 2016. Of them:

• Six wards declined between 0.1 and 3.5%

6 (-3.21%), 8 (-0.94%), 12 (-1.64%), 14 (-1.12%), 15 (-0.95%), 16 (-3.15%)

• Four wards declined between 3.51% and 6.5%

7 (-4.47%), 9 (-3.51%), 25 (-4.14%), 28 (-5.29%)

• Eleven wards declined between 6.51% and 9.5%.

1 (-8.14%), 2 (-8.25%), 4 (-7.41%), 5 (-8.85%), 11 (-6.85%), 17 (-7.34%), 19 (-6.93%), 20 (-6.73%), 21 (-7.79%), 26 (-6.53%), 27 (-8.11%)

• Three wards declined by more than 9.51%.

3 (-11.07%), 18 (-10.45%), 22 (-11.12%)

Improved in Four of the Twenty-Eight wards, compared to 2016.

• None improved by more than 1%.

10 (+0.72%), 13 (+0.29%), 23 (+0.88%), 24 (+0.12%)

Sharpest decline was ward 22 (-11.28%).

Highest improvement was ward 23 (+0.88%).

Turnout compared to 2012:

Declined in Twenty-Six of the Twenty-Eight wards when compared to 2012. Of them:

• Seven wards declined between 0.1% and 5.5%

8 (-2.27%), 10 (-0.71%), 12 (-1.90%), 13 (-1.69%), 14 (-3.28%), 15 (-2.60%) , 16 (-1.05%)

• Six wards declined between 5.51% and 10%

6 (-8.85%), 7 (-6.85%), 9 (-6.19%), 11 (-8.01%), 19 (-7.36%), 28 (-8.59%)

• Four wards declined between 10.1% and 15%

17 (-12.82%), 20 (-14.55%), 25 (-10.29%), 26 (-13.96%)

• Six wards declined between 15.1% and 20%

1 (-18.70%), 2 (-18.24%), 4 (-19.47%), 5 (-18.90%), 18 (-16.14%), 21 (-18.41%)

• Three wards declined by more than 20%

3 (-22.06%), 22 (-21.73%), 27 (-21.20%)

Improved in Two of the Twenty-Eight wards. None improved by more than 1%

• 23 (0.94%), 24 (0.15%)

Highest improvement was ward 23 (+0.94%).

Steepest decline was ward 3 (-22.06%).

Trump Results:

Total support was 16.01%, slight growth from 2016’s 15.72% (+0.29%).

Improved his support in Sixteen of the Twenty-Eight wards. Of them:

• Four wards increased between 0 and 1 percent.

8 (+0.57%), 14 (+0.41%), 17 (+0.77%), 19 (+0.62%)

• Seven wards increased between 1.1 and 2 percent.

2 (+1.84%), 4 (+1.88%), 5 (+1.87%), 22 (+1.99%) , 25 (+1.25%), 26 (+1.32%), 27 (+1.69%)

• Five wards increased between 2.1 and 3 percent.

1 (+2.42%), 3 (+2.05%), 18 (+2.03%), 20 (+2.54%), 21 (+2.09%)

Support declined in Twelve of the Twenty-Eight wards. Of them:

• Seven wards declined between 0 and 1 percent.

6 (-0.31%), 7 (-0.05%), 9 (-0.62%), 10 (-1.13%), 11 (-1.37%), 15 (-0.26%), 28 (-0.17%)

• Four wards declined between 1.1 and 3 percent.

12 (-2.29%), 13 (-1.77%), 16 (-2.80%), 24 (-2.64%)

• One ward declined by more than 3 percent.

23 (-7.03%)

Largest increase in support from 2016 was in ward 20 (+2.54%)

Sharpest decrease in support from 2016 was in ward 23 (-7.03%)

Highest total support in both 2016 and 2020 was ward 12.

• Garnered 36.60% in 2020 compared to 38.89% in 2016 (-2.29%).

Lowest total support was in ward 27.

• Garnered 3.34%, higher than 2016’s lowest support, 1.58% in ward 22 (+1.76%).

Prop 1:

Total measure needed 60% YES to pass. Narrowly lost a simple majority 49.87% YES to 50.13% NO (-0.26%)

Won a majority in Twelve of the Twenty-Eight wards. Of them:

• Ten had between 50% and 59.9% support

5 (56.99%), 7 (53.68%), 10 (54.18%), 13 (57.68%), 14 (52.88%), 17 (52.22%), 23 (59.75%), 24 (55.87%), 25 (51.93%), 28 (57.02%)

• Twelve wards had greater than 60% support.

12 (60.08%), 16 (62.87%)

Lost a majority in Sixteen of the Twenty-Eight wards. Of them:

• Nine wards had between 40% and 49.9% support

2 (40.85%), 6 (49.56%), 8 (44.61%), 9 (45.12%), 11 (49.70%), 18 (46.08%), 19 (46.47%), 20 (41.18%), 26 (43.53%)

• Six wards had between 30% and 39.9% support

1 (39.58%), 4 (39.83%), 15 (38.71%), 21 (39.86%), 22 (32.56%), 27 (37.75%)

• One ward had less than 30% support

3 (13.86%)

Highest support was ward 16 with 62.87%.

Lowest support was ward 3 with 13.86%.

Prop D:

Total measure passed handily, 68.14% YES 31.86% NO (+36.27%)

Won a majority in Twenty-One of Twenty-Eight wards. Of them:

• One ward passed it with between 50.1% — 59.9% support.

5 (59.67%)

• Six wards passed it with between 60% — 69.9% support.

11 (63,19%), 12 (69.01%), 18 (62.98%), 19 (63.09%), 20 (62.97%), 26 (63.20%)

• Twelve wards passed it with between 70% — 79.9% support.

6 (72.05%), 7 (76.30%), 9 (79.60%), 10 (74.71%), 13 (73.53%), 14 (75.84%), 16 (71.33%), 17 (75.30%), 23 (71.12%), 24 (77.37%), 25 (74.37%), 28 (73.85%)

• Two wards passed it with more than 80% support.

8 (80.53%), 15 (82.46%)

Lost a majority in Seven of the Twenty-Eight wards.

• All of them still garnered at least 40% support:

1 (48.09%), 2 (46.83%), 3 (47.59%), 4 (45.95%), 21 (49.73%), 22 (42.59%), 27 (45.51%)

Highest support was in ward 15 with 82.46%.

Lowest support was ward 22 with 42.59%..

Prop R:

Total measure passed 56.13% YES 43.87% NO (+12.26%)

Won a majority in Twenty-One of Twenty-Eight wards. Of them:

• Twelve wards passed it with between 50% and 59.9%

2 (54.71%), 3 (53.75%), 10 (54.25%), 13 (52.15%), 14 (50.99%), 16 (51.01%), 18 (56.38%), 21 (56.67%), 23 (53.24%), 24 (54.66%), 25 (52.89%), 26 (52.91%)

• Eight wards passed it with between 60% and 69.9%.

5 (62.24%), 6 (60.84%), 7 (60.96%), 8 (66.29%), 9 (63.48%), 17 (69.66%), 19 (64.08%), 28 (67.90%)

• One ward passed it with more than 70%.

15 (72.47%)

Lost a majority in Seven of the Twenty-Eight wards. Of them:

• Six wards supported it between 40% and 49.9%. Including:

1 (40.33%), 4 (48.63%), 11 (49.39%), 12 (46.53%), 20 (48.23%), 27 (45.11%)

One ward supported it by less than 40%

• 22 (29.40%)

Highest support was ward 15 with 72.47%.

Lowest support was ward 22 with 29.40%.

Thanks to Marquis Govan for the map template, and STL DSA’s Tech Committee for helping me do this. For more insight, follow me on Twitter.